Andy had a really neutral and professional view on the situation, and thanks for giving us some insight info on the toy sector which most of us concern and care. What is the "Buy Back" lines at mandarake for ? a full 100% refund for customer ? thx andy
Naah it's just a place for people to sell stuff they don't want. I think every Mandarake has buyback sections. People get maybe 50% (or less) than what Mandarake will sell it for.
Just saw this on the BBC: Japan sees record drop in exports: "Japan posted a trade deficit of $2.5bn (£1.7bn) in November as exports fell at their fastest-ever rate, the ministry of finance has said. Exports were down 26.7% from a year earlier, the ministry said, as a strong yen and the global economic downturn blunt demand for Japanese goods."
Yeah, the thing is it takes 3-6 months for the full impact of the downturn cycle to affect export-driven nations like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc. There's back stock, previous orders, etc, on the books, but once those dry up and new orders evaporate, the ordering cycle hammers these countries. That's why 2009 is, most likely, going to be absolutely crushing for Japan (and most of East Asia). A lot of companies have done away with part-time workers, and now (at least in Taiwan) we're seeing the phenomenon of "forced days off" during which people stay home with no pay, leading to an effective wage cut of 10% or more. I can only imagine the next step will be forced long-term unpaid holidays, or perhaps deferred salaries. Either that or mass layoffs. The one bright side is there are reports of strong ongoing investing in capital expenditure (new factories, equipment, etc.) in Japan. They've been through tough times (post-bubble economy) and have learned that when times are tough, you build for the future. I'm mostly concerned that now that interest rates are nearly zero in the US and Japan, there are few weapons left in the arsenals of the world's central banks. Credit is still super tight in the US, so even if people want to borrow, they can't. Anyway, I guess the silver lining is we're still not seeing "bread lines" stretching on forever or reports of social unrest (though there has been some in China). Hopefully this thing will right itself before too long.
The 3-6 month aspect is true. But that also applies on a personal level to countries that have consumers using credit cards. For example, I met someone who told me she was broke. I asked how bad. She says "Not too bad I still have a credit card." Yeah, right. Exactly. That mentality is part of the reason we're in a mess. If you don't have cash, you don't have cash. If you can't take something you control and turn it into cash without penalty, you are broke. I think the U.S. should take Japan's lead and invest in domestic factory and small industry growth and create incentives to do so. I think the service economy mentality has got to end.
No doubt, and now that a lot of people are complaining about credit card co's "rate jacking" their cards, that final lifeline is being jerked away. About time, right? Don't get me wrong, CC's can be a godsend in tough times, but too many people think that the remaining credit on a card is "theirs" just waiting to be spent.
I really pick up a lot from the discussion of andy and micromanzone. Glad to see someone who really have some good sense in our economy. Just spot another poor news regarding japan on bloomberg Yen Falls Versus Euro, Dollar on Record Drop in Japan’s Exports Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen weakened against the euro and the dollar as a record plunge in Japanese exports last month signaled the world’s second-largest economy was falling deeper into a recession. This really hurt when we are ordering toys or bidding on yja . Gosh
I think the analysts are scratching their heads trying to figure this out along with the rest of us. Nothing like this was "supposed" to happen, and there's no rule book. What happens when China decides it doesn't want to buy more bonds from the US government? How would the potential collapse of a major US automaker affect Honda? Nobody can answer these questions. And that's part of the problem. There's so much fear and uncertainty out there that banks are afraid to make the first move by loosening the credit. Yahoo! is a great company, and you work there, and you want to buy a new Prius from a dealership in Richmond, VA. But can the bank be sure you'll even have a job in 6 months or that Yahoo! will even be around? Sounds preposterous, but not many people would have believed you 12 months ago if you told them Lehman Brothers, Woolworths, Circuit City....would all be underwater at the end of 2008. So yeah I do think 2009 will be horrible once the full impact of the meltdown is felt in Asia. Because on the back of the bad news from the West come collapsing property markets in Shanghai and (quickly picking up speed) Taipei and probably elsewhere. Falling home prices, increasing mortgage defaults and bank foreclosures...Sound familar? So, I imagine the next (and final) stage of the Asian meltdown will be the collapse of the domestic economies (which is already happening in Japan). That's why this whole mess could drag on for 12 months or longer...
Wao, I love your view , andy. If you don't mind, I would like to share your paragraph with my colleagues.
You know times are seriously tough when Toyota is reporting a loss. http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/22/news/co ... /index.htm
Oh, they suffered from sales drop and strong yen. Even much worse than the GM, Ford... So, there should be at least some car company close down in this crisis. Guess which one will be the first one
While I love this discussion on economics and find it most interesting, can someone tell this layman how this will spell relief to me buying japanese kaiju in the near future? I presume alot more hard to find releases will pop up but will I be paying more than ever for them?
Sure, but I take no credit or blame for other people's reaction. Lixx, you really the nail on the head. The "f/x smart" solution (making up a phrase here) is to initiate your buy in a currency that's strong against the yen. (If there is one now. I sure don't know of any....) But that's messy (you'll need a f/x account and a basket of currencies) and probably impossible if you're paying through Paypal, since they're drawing from your USD backed balance, cc, etc. Wiring yen to Japan is one workaround, but the fees there are stupid high ($30-$50 on the receiving end!!!) Man I sure wish I had something more than gobbledygook for you. I'm struggling with the same problem... OK, but I do think the yen will recover against the USD. I don't think the BOJ can let this situation carry on much longer. As Garadama said, Toyota is losing a fortune due to the exchange rate. (Around a $2.5 billion loss in recent months, if memory serves.) I've read elsewhere that if this persists, firms may have no choice but to move even more factories outside of Japan. I hope that doesn't happen!!! So anyway, I think time is on our side. 90/1 has been a pretty stable floor for a while, but I reckon 100/1 will be a more comfortable rate and would expect recovery to that point within a few months. Just remember this is all speculation.
So happy to read andy's comment and view There is a lot to learn from him. Are you an expert trader in those i-bank ? So which currency we can short and long ?
