Ok, I am not imaging things right? But prices for some (I almost want to say most) vinyls on YJA are just - "out of control"?! I know we have a few heavy pocket hitters who snag the cool rare stuff at any price but a lot of the less rare stuff is also just commanding some pretty heavy prices. Anyone have any ideas as to why there is a "sudden" (it feels kind of sudden) surge in elevated pricing? Demand, Supply I get it - but is there some other factor out there? Yen devaluation doesn't seem to sync logically...stronger yen ==> greater Japanese buying power. Of course this all matters to me because I want to buy everything at DEFLATED prices!
How sudden are you talking about? I haven't been on YJA that much lately, but I haven't noticed anything really noticeable. The markets fluctuate all the time, and generally prices get a bit higher over time. There are also always examples of figures you are after just skyrocketing in price when a couple determined buyers happen to be looking at the same time. I have also seen a lot of bargains slip through without anyone seemingly interested. Vintage is a funny hobby. I would say prices on the US market (e.g. ebay) are going up a fair amount, sometimes to extremes, but I attribute this more to larger knowledge of the hobby and greater exposure through auction sites - coupled with a difficulty in access. Comparatively, prices one YJA have to compete with all the many shops in Japan that have vintage stuff in stock, and, at least for me, when I am buying a vintage figure, particularly if it happens to be a 'grail' or toy I really like that is expensive, there is no substitute for being able to check it out in person. I could definitely be wrong though. As I said, I have not been buying vintage steady at all for a fair amount of time. If you have some specific examples, post away. It is an interesting discussion. Oh, one last point in the ramble, for sure pieces that are minty or with rare accessories, packages, etc., command a premium, and on the Japanese market that is a massive amount. I would say that these rare occurences of figures or the right condition figure can easily go through the roof, simply because as collections sort of plateau or what have you, when folks are lifelong collectors, they can devote more to individual pieces to finish off a collection, rather than say someone building from scratch.
I haven't noticed that much fluxuation in price. Most YJA auctions seem to have a random life of their own. You can sort of tell what you're in for just by the toy and condition. If it's packaged still- you know it's going to command a premium. Missing parts, beat to shit, lots of marker- not going to go for as much. Lots depends on listing also. Sometimes you completely luck out and it's listed in a way that not as many people see. I just assume anymore that you're going to have competition. I get a max price in my head, maybe think of a little wiggle room if I really want it, but once it zooms past I'm over it. There will be others. Sucks waiting and searching till that day comes but better than blowing out your bank account. What I have noticed is for certain toys & characters its dried up a little. Couple that with more interest in vintage and buying services and you get more bids than usual- driving some auctions up.
I notice from time to time prices for certain lines go up and down and I think that popularity can influence the price. Places like this might have a topic where people post some wonderful figure that until then has been out of the spotlight. You might want one but so does every one else that's seen it and for a time the prices creep higher until the fuss dies down. Sometimes you get a lot of the rarer toys from a series or, as mentioned ^ more minty examples circling and yeah they get expensive. Also I agree there alot more proxy bidding services in the mix now. Overall I think prices for some lines have increased ...I guess I usually look at KR figures as my base - when I first started collecting the standards were about 12-20k on YJA and now they are more like 30. The mini's can get very expensive as some are rare but that has not changed. Having said all that there is still plenty of bargain's to be had ! What is it you collect ?
Oh, and I am sure I have mentioned this quite a few times in the past, but for anyone just coming in to the vintage game, condition plays a huge issue. Yeah, I know, this seems like a self-explanatory thing, but when it specifically comes to the Japanese collectors market, it makes that much more of a difference in pricing. Small paint rubs, looseness, sharpie names, etc., can take a figure quickly from 'collector's item' to 'junk' status. As someone on a budget, and who is not at all concerned with mint or museum quality toys, this is a huge advantage to me and one you can make use of. I built up nearly all of my vintage stuff from just hunting around for bargains. I have bought full size vintage toys for 500yen. It's not for everyone, I am just using it as an example to say that the range in prices is pretty massive. And prices generally rise too over time, both with natural inflation and as toys get bought into collections of people who will hold on to them for life. Some things change hands and people might sell a piece or two, but keep in mind generally collections get bigger, and folks hold on to the stuff they've amassed. So, generally, the number of stuff on the market will drop and prices will necessarily rise in response. Just a natural trend you have to contend with. It can come in waves. Interest in a particular figure can be sparked by many things, as Scott said, a simple mention on here can drive people to the hunt (and often at the same time) so then prices will be higher at auction sources. Other things like reissues, or new movies/series, etc. can bring stuff back in to the spotlight.
I have a hard time searching for everything I'm interested because I have to do it all from mobile so I can't see what prices are like. And I just started collecting in general so I have no clue as to a lot of stuffs value but I do see a lot of things go for nothing on there sometimes.. I won a M1 lucky bag mini matango for 1yen awhile back, don't know what those are worth but I saw the standard painted ones up for 2k or so last time I checked. All in the luck I guess. At the same time, I see tons of the same item listed for weird prices.. Example:BIN 12k, same minimum bid. Same item by different seller, same minimum bid..no BIN. Then some with higher minimum bids and way higher BINs. The first item has been up as long or longer than the rest, relisted multiple times. The same elegab destroyer set that went for 50$ after a couple of markdowns(still kicking myself for not grabbing it) is up for 12k+? If i recall correctly. I'm just tired of getting sniper bid on every damn auction on there. I guess that eventually I'll have to shell out for one of those services that give me my own account.. I'm looking at you, Zollmen buyers.
The buying service thing is sure giving all us a quandry. I don't like it at all, but it is what it is, YJA is not willing to change, and we just have to suffer through it if we want access to that market. Unfortunately. I will just say that sniping is kind of irrelvant on YJA. Yeah, generally people still throw in more bids towards the end of an auction, but you will usually see this activity increase in the last day, or last hours of a listing. This is because [for most, but not all] the end time is not set, and as long as bids are still placed within a ten minute window of the 'end time' it will continue to auto-lengthen. Thus, pick a price you are comfortable with and stick with it, like Lixx said. Sniping is okay, but doesn't get you much farther at the end of the day.
Ah, I didn't know that. Every auction I've been outbid on ends at like 4-6am my time and as much as I'd like to sleep I end up staying up watching it. I end up seeing the bids and it gets closer and closer to my max and I want to increase my max but it's the last 30 minutes and my proxy isn't around. I guess I need to plan it better, but it is good to know. I think someone explained this and I didn't understand at first. I also have had multiple instances where they had problems and couldn't bid at all. More or less my real complaint is I think everyone that beats me is some shop with way more cash than I have and then they'll just flip it after they're done. There are a few ilu ilu things on mandarake that I watched on YJA for awhile, so it's definitely happening..but at the same time I was bidding on a monster parade set and another member here is who much more deserving won it..so you never know I guess.
No problem Leili, I realise I should have explained it better. But for those not familiar with how this works, the auction runs as normal with a 'set' end time. If at anytime after the 10 min remaining mark in the auction, another person comes in, and replaces the currrent bidder as high bidder, the countdown resets, for another 10 min. Then, what usually happens is the first bidder (or someone else) will bid in that [next] 10 min window should they wish to increase the bid. If so, it resets once again to 10 min left. And so on. Thus, conceivably it could go on endlessly; eventually someone decides to pull back or has maxed out their funds, and so it is essentially the same procedure as with a live auction. In the end, he with the deepest pockets can walk away with the spoils. Sucks for some of us, but as Lixx has pointed out on more than one occasion, you can make those guys pay for it sometimes. You still need to be on the ball with the middleman though. Some can place bids again close to the end, and I have on occasion asked for a 'close to end' bid, but you can't really expect them to snipe something for you. Try to at least give them 12 hours notice I would say to be safe.
Hey this sounds like I just run up auctions or something, which I'd never do! In fact I often ask other vintage collectors here if they're "going for it?" if it's a toy I know they want or need in their collection. I'd never try to step on toes or intentionally bid up on people here. Now say a toy I'm bidding on is relatively cheap still and a store like Mandarake comes in like gangbusters outbids me but the auction is still relatively low and in my price range. Will I get into a little bit of a bidding war? Sure, because I know their game- buy low and flip high on their site and I'm not comfortable with them winning an auction I really want only to see it there later, especially when 500 more yen could have won it. But I'm not stupid, I'm not going to jack myself or raise a bid so the overall price of something gains the appearance of being worth more than it is. This is all in the context of 'still in my range'. And for the record my pockets are quite shallow
I find buying the unpopular shit whilst everyone else is chasing the latest hot poop / this months 'must have' means there are still plenty of bargains to be had!
Oops, that was poor wording on my part. Wasn't saying or implying Lixx was bidding up auctions or trying to screw over other collectors at all. I think it is a safe bet no one wants flippers and resalers to make any profit off of us, so the best thing to do is just stick to reasonable price auctions and keep the market steady by not going hog wild. If someone wants to throw all their cash at one toy to win an auction, that's fine, but they will be left holding it when it is over.
Is it bidding up when you plan to pay for item anyway? It usually goes this way for me. I watch an auction for an entire week (I do have a deputy service where i can snipe) near the end I make my bid and then more often than not the same freaking bidder shows up in the last minute and resets the clock! (these bidders shall remain nameless). My thinking is "oh Yeah M'F'er you want that beat up cracked Astro mu missing a weapon..well you're going to pay (Note: I have all Astro mu..thank god..this is an example of prices going bonkers by the way - other examples include the Mini Kamen Rider enemies). My drive to bid is directly proportional to the amount of times the bidder resets the clock with less than 10 sec left in the countdown. Know what? I have been caught on the wrong end of that type of bidding war...and I guess the seller always wins and I end up paying a little more than I though I would. It happens. As far as prices "seeming" higher I forget (forgot) that my happy days of bidding and winning like a madman were occurring when the yen rate was about 115. That actually might have something to do with it.
I don't know much of the market right now for Astro Mu stuff, but the entire line has always been very popular. Definitely will cost you a penny to collect them, especially the full size guys and their accessories. But I have picked up some of them for cheap as well (the minis I mean) - it can happen. Same with KR guys; I have quite a few, but have never paid a lot as I have just picked up the cheap ones when I could see them for a good price. The rarer mini figures go for crazy amounts, and even if I had the cash, I think I would still be hard pressed to spend a few hundred dollars on a mini.
Totally The only thing i've noticed, is in the last 6 months or so Mandarake have been selling new-release Bear Model figures at double the retail or more. Which is fucking annoying!
^^ Hell yes. And not just Bearmodel either. Watch the online store a day or two after any WonderFest or Superfest, and you are guaranteed to see the exclusives pop up there - and at a hefty markup. Of course, they are a business, and this is the way they make their profit, just sucks that it is immediate and so high, when the items are usually limited and very difficult for folks outside of Japan to get. I just don't buy from them when the stuff is obvious overpriced/flipping, but I also know this doesn't even affect them - I am not that naive, just principle. Stuff gets sold. Yen gets banked.
What is especially aggravating/frustrating, is when an auction goes into overtime ! I was trying to adopt a sky blue Kanegon Toygraph racer (such a beauty! ), and there was just one other bidder. The auction went into overtime, by "renewing" the extension time (I think it was in 15 minute increments), for three rounds . I initially "won" the auction at the official ending time, then had to bid higher to keep the lead in the 1st and 2nd overtime rounds, and finally dropped the auction on the 3rd round. The Racer went from 8000 to 30000 JPY! If someone can explain the "over time" rules, I would really appreciate it. How many times and how long can an auction go into overtime? Also, I sort of wonder if the competing bidder wasn't associated with the seller, and used this method to bid up the sale price. Or, it could have been a battle of temperaments, and in that case, an auction can certainly get out of hand.
I don't know that there is a limit Grace. There could well be, as I don't think they would let in go on forever - but who knows, maybe they would - but I am sure if there is one it is considerable. I have definitely seen auctions extended by several hours over a bidding war as the price goes up. One thing I did not mention in my previous post is that the bid increments also get higher. This is actually a huge pain in the ass. One, because it of course means you have to spend more each time to be the 'winner,' which makes it costly to keep bidding and skyrockets the auction price when there is a bidding war. And secondly, because the bid increments are changing, if you are not careful you might not get the high bid, because you must enter a bid that is at least higher than the winning bid by the current increment. In other words, you have to bid more and above then just beating out the other guy. What the increments are exactly depend on the auction price, but the more expensive an item is, such as a vintage figure, or something very popular, this becomes a major effect. As you saw with the Toygraph racer, it can quickly get out of hand, and cause the item to end much higher. Again, all of this procedure pretty much negates any sniping, and means you are best off picking a price your are comfortable with, maybe adding a premium buffer if it is something you really want, and sticking to that. This is easier said than done of course. We have all been there where you get stuck in a bidding war, and before you know it, everything has gotten way out of hand. If you are lucky, as I would say you were in this case, you can walk away the loser and not be saddled with an incredibly expensive toy multiple times over what you were intending to pay.
5 minutes Auto Extension Rule It is typical Yahoo‘s unique rule. If you try to outbid the high bidder in the last 5 minutes, the ending time of the auction extends 5 minutes automatically. This keeps working until other bidders give up bidding on the auction in the last 5 minutes.This rule is for avoiding snipe bids and very good rule for sellers. Seller can choose this function but most of auctions have this 5 minutes extension rule. - From a deputy services site.
Thank you for the explanation Steve and Kulio! That explains a lot of things! Yep, unless you have an endlessly renewable money tree, it's best not to invest your "emotions" in an auction, and just focus on setting decent limits, or at the very most, sorta-indecent-but-not-crazy-wonky-regrettable limits!
Some vinyls have gone up in price lately but several have dropped as well. I think there trends that people pick up on. Talkers and missile fire vinyls are going for crazy prices right now, but kaiju vinyls have declined. A rare item we always be all over the price depending on if you can get two people to fight for it. And the auctions for rare items(marusan first etc) have really declined in the past few years. I recently bought an item from a friend that was selling it on yahoo and it was about a fourth of what he original bought it for on yahoo roughly 6 years ago. There has been a surplus of ultra father cyborgs and the price has dropped drastically from the one that hit 500,000 a few years ago(thanks an error bid). The prices on yahoo are still well below what you will pay for items in toy shops in japan.
Interesting to know! Pardon the ignorance, but do many of the JP toy shops post sales on JYA (either using their shop name or an alias)?
Quite alot of shops post on YJA ... especially second hand/antique shops that don't really specialize in toys. I'm on the fence a bit about the price in a store in Japan, I usually buy a few things and the price will usually come down a bit in store ... but if your talking places like Mandarake then yeah your not going to find a 'bargin'. On YJA for most of us there is always the commission,domestic postage and Int postage to artificially inflate the price.
